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岩爆是高地应力地区岩石开挖中的一种动力破坏现象,其机理复杂、影响因素众多,单一的评价指标无法准确描述岩爆发生的可能性。基于信息融合思想,提出一种能够综合考虑多指标共同作用的岩爆预测方法。该方法以证据理论为基础,以岩爆等级为识别框架,根据岩爆发生所需条件,选取最大切向应力与岩石单轴抗压强度比值、岩石单轴抗压强度与抗拉强度比值、岩石弹性能量指数为证据体,采用粗糙集理论客观确定了各证据体的确定信度,建立了基于证据理论的岩爆烈度预测模型。12组工程实例的预测结果表明该模型具有较好的预测精度。将该模型应用于苍岭隧道和锦屏二级水电站探硐岩爆预测,预测结果与实际情况完全吻合,说明该模型具有较好的实用性。
Rockburst is a kind of dynamic destruction phenomenon in rock excavation in high stress area. Its mechanism is complex and there are many influencing factors. A single evaluation index can not exactly describe the possibility of rockburst. Based on the idea of information fusion, a rockburst prediction method that can comprehensively consider the multi-indicator interaction is proposed. Based on the evidence theory and the rockburst classification as the identification framework, this method chooses the ratio of the maximum tangential stress to the rock uniaxial compressive strength, the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength and tensile strength of rock, Rock elastic energy index as evidence body, using the rough set theory to objectively confirm the certainty of each evidence body, and establish the rockburst intensity prediction model based on evidence theory. The prediction results of the 12 groups of engineering examples show that the model has a good prediction accuracy. The model is applied to the prediction of rock burst in the exploration of Cangling tunnel and Jinping II hydropower station. The prediction result is in good agreement with the actual situation, which shows that the model has good practicability.