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为了使预测更为准确,采用了三种模型加权组合的方法对机场航油销售量预测进行了组合预测.探讨了影响新疆机场航油销售量的三大因素,并对“十三五”期间各年航油销售量进行预测与研究分析.通过研究新疆机场航油销售量与旅客吞吐量、货邮吞吐量和起降架次之间的关联关系,通过建立相关系数模型、新陈代谢灰色GM(1,1)模型和弹性系数模型对新疆“十三五”期间新疆机场航油销售量进行预测.研究结果表明,此组合模型能够较为准确的预测新疆“十三五”期间的机场航油销售量,为航油设施、设备的规划提供了理论依据.
In order to make the prediction more accurate, we use the weighted combination of three models to forecast the sales volume of jet fuel in the airport.We discuss the three factors that affect the jet fuel sales in Xinjiang airport, Forecasting and researching and analyzing the sales volume of aviation fuel in each year in this period.Through researching the correlation between the sales volume of aviation fuel oil in Xinjiang airport and the passenger throughput, cargo throughput and landing traffic, (1,1) Model and Elasticity Coefficient Model to forecast the sales amount of jet fuel in Xinjiang Airport during the “Thirteen Five” period in Xinjiang.The results show that this model can predict more accurately the Xinjiang “13th Five-Year” period Of the airport jet fuel sales, for aviation fuel facilities, equipment planning provides a theoretical basis.