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本文比较购买力平价和均衡汇率两个概念的差别,强调用购买力平价衡量均衡汇率必须以内外均衡为条件.在此基础上,本文建立了一个内外均衡条件下的购买力平价模型来探求均衡汇率.这种均衡汇率新思想的核心结论是均衡汇率取决于不变因素、需求因素和供给因素(即劳动生产率),其中供给因素最为活跃.该均衡汇率思想被应用于人民币汇率的实证分析,结果表明,人民币兑美元汇率1978-1993年一直处于高估状态,而1994年以后则一直处于低估状态,但2007年以来低估程度明显缩小.“,”The paper firstly compares the difference between PPP and equilibri- um exchange rate, and points out that it is necessary to add the condition of inter- nal and external equilibrium for estimating exactly the equilibrium exchange rate. The key conclusion of the new thought is that the equilibrium exchange rate can be broken into three parts, which are the bias of marginal productivity of capital of the two countries, the demand factor and the supply factor, and the supply factor is most driven. The next empirical analysis shows that RMB had been overvalued during 197841993, and that RMB has been undervalued ever since 1994.