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Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades? This paper tries to answer this question by: 1) arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2) focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3) analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.
Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades? This paper tries to answer this question by: 1) arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side; 2) focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration; and 3) analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey. Policy options to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.