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马尔可夫链是研究复杂系统的一个数学模型,其预测的出发点是现有状态和当前条件,被认为是市场占有率、人才需求、设备更新等的较好预测模型.技术创新从新思想的产生到成功实现商业化,需要经过多个环节,受内外环境多个因素的影响,从而使得技术创新的风险性很高,这就需要对技术创新的成功概率进行预测,以降低风险.通过分析,技术创新链也符合马尔可夫过程,故依据技术创新程序和各阶段特点,构造技术创新马尔可夫链,并据此进一步构造出技术创新成功率预测模型.
Markov chain is a mathematical model for studying complex systems, and the starting point of its prediction is the existing state and current conditions, which are considered as the better prediction models of market share, personnel demand, equipment renewal, etc. Technological innovation is based on the generation of new ideas To achieve commercialization successfully, it needs to go through many steps and is influenced by many factors of internal and external environment, so that the risk of technological innovation is very high, which requires the probability of success of technological innovation to be predicted to reduce the risk.By analysis, The technological innovation chain is also in line with the Markov process. Therefore, based on the technological innovation process and the characteristics of each stage, a technological innovation Markov chain is constructed, and the prediction model of the success rate of technological innovation is further constructed.