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为促进国家能源健康持续发展,从煤炭安全压力、状态、响应3个子系统出发构建了煤炭安全测度指标体系,科学评价了煤炭安全的程度。通过确定各子系统的集成权重建立了煤炭安全度和煤炭安全系统协调发展度评价模型,以此研究煤炭安全状况并对其发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:1997—2008年在各子系统共同作用下煤炭安全度呈2周期移动平均曲线变化趋势,系统协调发展度处于勉强协调与中级协调之间,这期间煤炭运输和能源效率是煤炭安全最重要的影响因素;在此基础预测2009—2016年煤炭安全度呈快速上升趋势,但系统协调发展度出现下降态势并趋向失调衰退。从子系统考虑煤炭安全的影响因素与变化趋势,促进其协调作用机制的形成,是保障能源安全的重要途径。
In order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the country’s energy sources, a coal safety measure index system was set up based on the three subsystems of the coal safety pressure, state and response, and the degree of coal safety was scientifically evaluated. Through determining the integrated weight of each subsystem, the coal safety degree and the evaluation model of coordinated development degree of coal safety system are established to study the status of coal safety and forecast its development trend. The results show that under the joint action of all subsystems, the safety of coal shows a trend of 2-week moving average curve from 1997 to 2008, and the degree of coordinated development of the system is between the barely coordinated and medium-level coordination. During this period, coal transportation and energy efficiency are the most important factors of coal safety Important influencing factors. On the basis of this forecast, coal safety in 2009-2016 will show a rapid upward trend, but the degree of coordinated development of the system will decline and will tend to decline. Considering the influencing factors and changing trends of coal safety from the subsystem and promoting the formation of its coordination mechanism is an important way to ensure energy security.