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1982年末和1983年初西方经济先后走出战后第三次经济危机进入第四个经济周期。这个经济周期的进程一再地背离绝大多数西方经济学家、政府及私人经济预测机构关于出现经济衰退的预测,在80年代保持了持续的经济增长。目前,西方经济的周期增长已进入90年代第8个年头,成为战后和平时期最长的一个经济增长阶段,因而格外引人注目。对这一时期西方经济增长的特点及形成原因的研究,对于我们认识80年代的西方经济及预测和把握90年代的西方经济趋势具有重要的意义。
At the end of 1982 and beginning of 1983, the western economy stepped out of the third economic crisis and entered the fourth economic cycle. The process of this economic cycle has repeatedly deviated from the forecasts of the vast majority of Western economists, governments and private economic forecast agencies on the occurrence of economic recession and maintained sustained economic growth in the 1980s. At present, the cyclical growth of the western economy has entered the eighth year of the 1990s and has become the longest period of economic growth in post-war peacetime. Therefore, it has drawn special attention. The study of the characteristics and formation causes of the western economic growth during this period is of great significance for us to understand the western economy in the 1980s and to forecast and grasp the western economic trends in the 1990s.