中国刚刚发布的一季度宏观数字可以说是全线飘红。对于那些曾担心中国经济今年通缩、下滑的人士,这些数字应当令他们感到些许安慰,而对于另外那些曾预警中国经济正在滑向“过热”边缘的观察家,包括笔者本人,这些宏观数字一方面支持了自己前期的判断,但另一方面,却也惊异中国经济反转速度之快。不论去年以来说冷或说热的经济学家,现在的当务之急恐怕是讨论下一步的宏观调控应在何时、以何种方式进行的时候了。但在“下药”之前,对经济趋热的根源的正确判断应当是第一位的。否则不但 China has just released a quarter of macro figures can be said across the board gains across the board. These figures should make people feel some relief to those who have worried about the deflation and decline of China’s economy this year. These macro figures support the other observers, including the author, who have also warned that the Chinese economy is sliding toward “overheating.” On the one hand, On the other hand, he was also surprised by the rapid economic reversal in China. Regardless of economists who said they were cold or hot last year, the current top priority is probably to discuss when and how macro-control should be carried out in the next step. However, before “taking the medicine,” the correct judgment of the root cause of the economic fever should be the first priority. Otherwise, not only