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针对三峡库区工业源污染排放量大,对库区水生态环境安全危害大的特点,以库区湖北段工业源为研究对象,采用实际监测和企业申报监测数据方式,辅以排污系数计算方法,统计分析了1995—2007年工业废水量和主要污染物COD的排放量,并采用灰色-马尔柯夫链模型预测2008—2020年的污染负荷。结果表明,自2005年以后,工业废水的排放量呈现逐渐下降的趋势,在2007年达到1857.13万t,2008年以后逐渐增加。COD的排放量总体呈逐渐下降的趋势,只是在2001年出现上升,到2007年底COD的排放量为611.21t。随着工业源污染物全防全控的加强,预计工业污染负荷会逐步减少。
In view of the characteristics of large industrial pollution discharge in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and great harm to aquatic eco-environmental safety in the reservoir area, the industrial source in Hubei section of the reservoir area is taken as the research object. By means of actual monitoring and enterprise application of monitoring data, , And statistically analyzed the amount of industrial wastewater and COD emissions from 1995 to 2007, and used the gray-Markov chain model to predict the pollution load in 2008-2020. The results show that since 2005, the discharge of industrial wastewater shows a gradual downward trend, reaching 18.5713 million tons in 2007 and gradually increasing after 2008. COD emissions generally showed a gradual downward trend, only rising in 2001. By the end of 2007, COD emissions were 611.21t. With the prevention and control of all sources of pollutants in industrial sources strengthened, it is expected that the industrial pollution load will be gradually reduced.