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房地产限购的本质就是局部性的资本管制,其成功的关键在于设计一个有效甄别消费者需求和投资需求的机制。房地产限购是过渡性的制度安排,在今天的环境下,它比传统的调节手段更为有效,但其成本也十分明显,即它阻碍或推迟了部分消费需求的实现。因此,必须进行全面系统的财税改革,改变地方政府的卖地财政;建立公共性住房的融资、建设、管理机制;借鉴德国、新加坡等国经验,合理调节投资需求。这三条做到了,房地产限购也就具备了退出的条件。
The essence of real estate purchase is local capital controls. The key to its success lies in designing a mechanism to effectively identify consumer needs and investment needs. Real estate restriction is a transitional institutional arrangement, which is more effective than traditional means of regulation in today’s environment but at a cost that is clear that it hinder or delay the realization of some of the consumer’s needs. Therefore, we must conduct a comprehensive and systematic fiscal and tax reforms to change the local government’s land finance; establish public housing financing, construction and management mechanisms; learn from Germany, Singapore and other countries experience, reasonable adjustment of investment needs. These three do, the real estate purchase also have the exit conditions.