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决策后评估对衡量决策的效果具有重要作用。本文引入反事实推理方法实现对决策结果的对比后评估。首先提出了带有后评估环节的规范性决策流程,然后阐述了使用因果影响图模型进行反事实推理的步骤,定义了自满意度和相对满意度两个指标,通过反事实推理的结果计算指标的分值,从而实现对决策的评价。最后使用例子展示了计算过程,表明了该方法是可行和有效的。
Post-decision evaluation plays an important role in measuring the effectiveness of the decision. In this paper, the counterfactual reasoning method is introduced to achieve the comparative evaluation of the decision-making results. First of all, a normative decision-making process with post-evaluation is proposed. Then, the steps of counterfactual reasoning using causal impact graph are expounded, two indicators of self-satisfaction and relative satisfaction are defined, and the index of counterfactual reasoning Score, in order to achieve the evaluation of the decision-making. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the calculation process, which shows that this method is feasible and effective.