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目前国内对两种飞虱的数量预测仍为短期预报。为了改进对两种飞虱发生数量的预报方法,我们于一九八六年至八八年,对早稻白背飞虱、褐稻虱发生数量(中期)预测进行了大面积地预报应用。三年累积预报面积达190万亩,其中一九八八年达100.53万亩,占全地区当年早稻面积的56.8％。共预报时效比以往短期发生(数量)程度预报提前15—25天;经15年次预报,白背飞虱吻合率达98.4％,褐稻虱吻合率达94.6％;经18年次回测,白背飞虱吻合率达99.44％。为指导大面积防治提供了准确情报。取得了显著的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益。
At present, the forecast of the number of two planthoppers in China is still short-term forecast. In order to improve the method of forecasting the number of two planthopper occurrences, we conducted a large-scale forecast application of the prediction of the number (medium-term) occurrence of white-backed planthopper and brown planthopper in early rice in 1986-88. Three-year cumulative forecast area of 190 million mu, of which 100.53 million mu in 1988, accounting for 56.8% of the area of early rice in the year. A total of 15-25 days ahead of time was predicted for short-term occurrence (amount) of total pre-aging. After 15-year forecast, the anastomosis rate of white-backed planthopper was 98.4% and the anastomosis rate of brown planthopper was 94.6%. After 18 years’ Anastomosis rate of backyard lice reached 99.44%. To guide large-scale prevention and control provided accurate information. Achieved significant economic, social and ecological benefits.