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目的:探讨深圳市南山区肺结核流行期及其超额病例。方法:利用国家疾病预防控制信息系统中导出的2011年1月-2016年12月深圳市南山区月确诊肺结核病例,构建回顾性调整Serfling回归模型。结果:深圳市南山区该时段肺结核疫情呈总体向下线性趋势。2011-2013年流行期以单个月份出现为主,3月多见;而2014-2016年以连续多月形式出现为主,多分布在春和秋季,散见夏、冬季,其中2015年流行期从当年5月持续到10月。检测到超额病例数合计为665.5例,总超额率为58.2%。结论:春季为该地区固定流行期,其他季节是否为流行期各年情况不一致,人口流动是影响该地区流行期变动的重要因素。
Objective: To investigate the prevalence of tuberculosis and its excess cases in Shenzhen Nanshan District. Methods: A retrospective-adjusted Serfling regression model was constructed using monthly sputum TB cases derived from the National Disease Prevention and Control Information System from January 2011 to December 2016 in Shenzhen Nanshan District. Results: The epidemic situation of tuberculosis in Nanshan District in Shenzhen City showed a downward trend at the whole time. The prevalence in 2011-2013 was mainly in a single month and was more frequent in March, while in 2014-2016 it was dominated by many months in a row, mostly distributed in spring and autumn, scattered in summer and winter, with the prevalence in 2015 From that year in May until October. A total of 665.5 cases of excessive cases detected, the total excess rate of 58.2%. Conclusion: Spring is the fixed epidemic period in this area, and the other seasons are not epidemic in different years. Population migration is an important factor affecting the epidemic period in this area.