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无论是传统的运输需求模型还是LES或ELES模型,用于交通运输消费的行业性需求分析或预测都存在不足,主要是指标的实物化和多因素造成的函数关系的不稳定性。通过设置交通运输消费倾向,并引入持久预期收入和生命周期等理论模型可克服这些缺陷。借助交通运输消费倾向可以对中国居民交通运输消费市场进行区域划分。交通运输消费倾向与第三产业发展程度存在着显著的相关性,积极支持落后地区交通运输业的发展是缩小地区差距的一种有效方法。
Whether traditional transport demand model or LES or ELES model, the industrial demand analysis or prediction for transportation consumption is not enough, mainly due to the materialization of the index and the instability of the functional relationship caused by many factors. These deficiencies can be overcome by setting theoretical models of transport spending propensity and introducing long-term expected earnings and life cycles. With the transportation propensity to consume can be Chinese residents of the transport and consumer markets for regional division. There is a significant correlation between the consumption propensity of transportation and the development of the tertiary industry. Actively supporting the development of transportation in the backward areas is an effective way to narrow the disparity in the area.