圣经上说,有人向盲者说他是基督,盲者抚摸他的手上没有钉痕,回答说你不是基督。证券市场的发展何尝不是这样?10年前我曾有机会到纽约学习,特地到慕名已久的华尔街和纽约证券交易所考察,也有机会到纽约联储地下著名的金库参观,算是对华尔街有了一点十分有限的实感。反观中国的证券市场发展,我们常常见到或听到一些以今天美国证券市场的标准与原则来苛责尚处于起步阶段的中国证券市场的言论与做法,这些做法往往对市场发展带来不少负面的影响。如果要更深刻地理解美国证券市场的历程,同时也更清晰地把握中国证券市场的现状与未来,我的建议是:让我们来一起抚摸美国证券市场的伤痕,看看这个市场的来龙去脉。“回顾所来径,苍茫横翠微”,把美国证券市场的来历看清楚了,我们才有回顾与指点的空间。看了中信出版社出版的《伟大的博弈》这本译著,我们可以从文字上去抚摸美国证券市场的伤痕、寻找市场的脉络。在这本书看起来貌似散乱的历史故事中,作者始终强调了现代资本市场发展的逻辑和基本的信念,那就是:把华尔街的兴衰放到整个美国经济、乃至全球经济的大背景之下来把握,是关于华尔街的“大历史”;强调亚当·斯密在1776年提出的“看不见的手”的理念通过华尔街的实践不断深化的过程。在书中起起落落的关于华尔街的故事中,我们看到的是作者给我们强调的资本市场的自我演进、自我探索、自我修复、不断试错的活力与韧性。中国证券市场上曾经经历过一场声势浩大的关于股市如赌场的争论,实际上在美国证券市场发展的早期阶段,美国政府有时也一直以“屡败屡战”的决心打击投机,希望将投机活动驱逐出美国的证券市场,结果导致市场付出相当大的成本,以至于一位美国的投资家调侃说:“当我年轻的时候,人们称我为赌徒:后来我的生意规模越来越大,我成为一名投机者:而现在我被称为银行家。但其实我一直在做同样的工作。”1975年美国放弃了持续长达17.5年的固定佣金制,引起了市场相当大的震动,对照中国证券市场在不长的时间内就推出了这一举措,中国市场迅速发展的历程,也从这种对照中得到确认。如何应对证券市场的恐慌?格林斯潘和本杰明·斯特朗共同认可的一个策略是:对于市场恐慌,你只需要开闸放水,让金钱充斥市场。1987年美国股市崩溃时,美联储给所有的人打电话:你需要钱吗?如果需要,我们可以提供。于是,作者认为,正由于此,美国没有再见到1929年那样的股灾。但是,在中国,可行的应对市场恐慌的措施是什么?类似美国的这种应对措施是否会导致严重的道德风险?这些都是引人深思的问题。中国正在寻求和平崛起的发展道路,在这个过程中,不发挥证券市场在产业结构调整、促进投资等方面的作用,不通过建立一个发达的证券市场来扩大中国在金融领域的影响力和支配力,无疑会加大和平崛起的难度。为什么在鸦片战争和甲午海战中,中国的GDP 分别是英国的4倍、日本的5倍,却依然战败?筹资能力和资源配置能力是一个重要的因素。 The Bible says someone told the blind that he was Christ, and that the blind touched no marks on his hand and replied that you were not Christ. 10 years ago I had the opportunity to study in New York City, specifically to the prestigious Wall Street and the New York Stock Exchange inspection, but also the opportunity to visit the New York Fed underground famous vault, be regarded as a Wall Street has a Point is very limited real feeling. On the other hand, in the development of China’s securities market, we often hear or hear some remarks and practices that have blamed China’s securities market, which is still in its infancy, with the standards and principles of the U.S. securities market today. These practices often bring about a lot of negative effects on market development Impact. If we want to gain a deeper understanding of the history of the U.S. securities market and at the same time grasp more clearly the status quo and future of the Chinese securities market, my suggestion is: let us touch the scars on the U.S. securities market to see the ins and outs of this market. “Looking back on the path to the vastness of the valley”, we can see clearly the origins of the U.S. securities market and we will have room to review and guide us. Having read the translation of “The Great Game” published by CITIC Publishing House, we can trace the scars of the U.S. securities market from the text and look for the context of the market. In the seemingly seemingly random history of the book, the author has always emphasized the logic and basic belief in the development of modern capital markets that: Put Wall Street’s rise and fall into the overall context of the U.S. economy and even the global economy Is about the “Great History” on Wall Street; the process of deepening the concept of “invisible hand” put forward by Adam Smith in 1776 through the practice of Wall Street. What we see in the story of Wall Street that goes up and down in the book is the energy and resilience of the capital markets we self-evolve, self-exploration, self-healing, and trial and error. China’s stock market once experienced a massive debate over the stock market such as casinos. In fact, during the early stages of the development of the U.S. securities market, the U.S. government sometimes has been cracking down on speculation with the determination of “repeated defeats” in the hope of speculating The expulsion from the U.S. securities market resulted in considerable costs for the market, so one American investor quipped: “When I was young, people called me a gambler: Then my business was getting bigger and bigger Big, I became a speculator: And now I’m called a banker, but in fact I’ve been doing the same job. ”In 1975, the United States gave up its fixed commission system for as long as 17.5 years and caused considerable market share Vibration, compared with China’s securities market in less time to launch this move, the rapid development of the Chinese market, the process is also confirmed from this comparison. How to deal with the stock market panic? Greenspan and Benjamin Strang agreed that one strategy is: for the market panic, you just need to floodgates, so that money flooding the market. When the U.S. stock market collapsed in 1987, the Fed called everyone: Do you need money? We can provide it if needed. Therefore, the author believes that it is precisely because of this that the United States did not see the kind of stock market crash in 1929. However, what are the feasible measures to deal with market panic in China? Will this kind of response like the United States lead to serious moral hazard? All these are thought-provoking questions. China is seeking a path of development for its peaceful rise. In this process, it will not give full play to its role in industrial restructuring and investment promotion. It will not expand its influence and dominance over the financial sector by establishing a developed stock market , Will undoubtedly increase the difficulty of peaceful rise. Why China’s GDP during the Opium War and the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 were four times those of the United Kingdom and five times those of Japan, respectively, but they still failed? The ability to raise capital and allocate resources is an important factor.