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过去5年我国房地产开发投资直接和间接拉动GDP增长每年保持在2个百分点左右,约占中国GDP增长率的四分之一。因此,目前各界担心房地产业如果出现一些大的起伏,会酿成亚洲金融危机般的严重后果。本文借鉴现代金融理论中的资本资产定价模型CAPM,给出了测度房地产泡沫系数科学准确的评判标准,并就2002年我国房地产市场的冷热进行个案研究。
In the past five years, the real estate development investment in our country has directly and indirectly boosted the GDP growth by 2 percentage points each year, accounting for about one quarter of China’s GDP growth rate. Therefore, at present, all walks of life are worried that any major ups and downs in the real estate industry will lead to the serious consequences of the Asian financial crisis. This paper draws on CAPM, a capital asset pricing model in modern financial theory, and gives a scientific and accurate evaluation criterion for measuring real estate bubble coefficient. In addition, a case study on the real estate market in China in 2002 is conducted.