德尔菲法(delphi method),又称专家规定程序调查法。德尔菲法是在20世纪40年代由Helmer和Gordon首创的。1946年,美国兰德公司为避免集体讨论存在的屈从于权威或盲目服从多数的缺陷,首次用这种方法用来进行定性预测,后来该方法被迅速广泛采用。该方法主要是由调查者拟定调查表,按照既定程序,以函件的方式分别向专家组成员进行征询;而专家组成员又以匿名的方式(函件)提交意见。经过几次反复征询和反馈,专 Delphi method (delphi method), also known as expert rules of procedure investigation. Delphi was first pioneered by Helmer and Gordon in the 1940s. In 1946, in order to avoid the shortcomings of the group discussions that were subservient to authority or blind obedience, this method was used for qualitative prediction for the first time. In 1946, however, the method was rapidly and widely adopted. The method is mainly based on the questionnaire prepared by the investigators, in accordance with established procedures, by letter to the members of the Group were consulted, and members of the Group anonymous manner (letter) to submit comments. After several repeated consultation and feedback, specifically