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罗伯特·席勒与尤金·法马、拉尔斯·汉森因在资产价格方面所做的实证分析,而获得2013年诺贝尔经济学奖。具体来说,法马与几位合作者证明了股票价格在短期内极难预测,新的信息总是快速影响股价。席勒随后发现,股价短期内虽很难预测,但长期走势却可以预测。而汉森则研究出一种统计方法,能够适用于检测资产定价的合理性。因此,诺贝尔经济学奖评选委员会认为,可预期性是2013年获奖成就的核心。我们认为,回顾
Robert Schiller and Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013 for his empirical analysis of asset prices. Specifically, Fama and several collaborators have proved that stock prices are extremely unpredictable in the short term, and new information is always rapidly affecting the stock price. Schiller subsequently found that although the stock price is difficult to predict in the short term, the long-term trend can be predicted. Hansen, on the other hand, has developed a statistical method that can be applied to test the rationality of asset pricing. As a result, the Nobel Prize in Economics selection committee believes that predictability is at the heart of 2013’s award-winning achievements. We think, review