基于logit模型的农户有机肥施用意愿及影响因素分析——以山东为例(英文)

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我国目前化肥施用过量,有机肥施用严重不足,导致环境污染严重,土壤肥力下降,阻碍了农业可持续发展。笔者2008年对山东省200个农户的调查建立了logit模型,对山东地区农户有机肥施用意愿及影响因素进行了分析。结果表明,影响农户有机肥施用的因素主要有非种植业收入占总收入的比重(系数为负值)、对增施有机肥有利于农业可持续发展的认识(系数为正值)、确定单位耕地面积有机肥施用量是否有困难(系数为负值)等。根据实证研究结果,提出了引导农户增施有机肥的相关政策建议:①加强宣传,积极引导农民合理施用有机肥;②做好农业技术推广工作,对农民合理施肥以及其他可持续农业技术问题有着重要的指导作用;③通过土地合理流转,实现土地的适度规模经营;④对施用有机肥的农田给予补贴;⑤加强有机肥的科研工作和管理工作,如农村垃圾的分类收集与处理、饲料添加剂的质量控制等。积极探索和推广有机肥资源综合利用技术模式,特别是加快秸秆还田技术的研究开发和推广应用。大力发展绿肥生产,同时对于生产商品有机肥的企业,国家应给予扶持。 At present, excessive use of chemical fertilizers and serious shortage of organic manure in our country lead to serious environmental pollution and decreased soil fertility, hindering the sustainable development of agriculture. The author established a logit model for the survey of 200 peasants in Shandong Province in 2008, and analyzed the willingness and influencing factors of organic fertilizer application in Shandong. The results showed that the main factors influencing the application of organic manure were the proportion of non-farming income to total income (negative coefficient), the understanding of increasing organic fertilizer to agricultural sustainable development (positive coefficient), the unit of determination Whether the application of organic fertilizer in cultivated land is difficult (coefficient is negative) and so on. According to the results of the empirical research, some policy suggestions to guide farmers to increase organic fertilizer are put forward: ① Strengthen propaganda and guide farmers to rationally use organic fertilizer; ② Do a good job of popularizing agricultural technology, which has a positive effect on farmers’ reasonable fertilization and other sustainable agricultural technologies Important guiding role; ③ through the rational transfer of land to achieve the appropriate scale of land management; ④ organic fertilizer applied to farmland subsidies; ⑤ strengthen organic fertilizer research and management work, such as the classification of rural garbage collection and processing, feed additives Quality control and so on. Actively explore and promote the comprehensive utilization of organic fertilizer resources technology model, in particular, to speed up the research and development and promotion of straw technology. Vigorously develop green manure production, at the same time for the production of organic fertilizer business enterprises, the state should give support.
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