时尚作为一种社会现象 ,是由个别人物的倡导和示范 ,先在少数人中流行 ,然后迅速蔓延到社会。多数人出于新奇与从众心理而仿效。对于它的研究有助于人们把握这种社会现象的产生与蔓延过程 ,深入认识和控制它的发展。由于它的复杂多样性 ,当前还缺乏对它的定量分析与研究。论文利用基于智能主体的仿真方法 ,分析了时尚的涌现过程。文中建立了两种模型 ,用于确定公众能否接受某种时尚的临界值。一种模型基于公众能获取全部信息 ,另一种则基于个人只能获取邻近信息。 As a social phenomenon, fashion is advocated and demonstrated by individual people. It first popularized among a few people and then quickly spread to society. Most people follow the novelty and herd mentality. The research on it helps people grasp the process of the emergence and spread of this social phenomenon and deeply understand and control its development. Because of its complex diversity, it is still lack of quantitative analysis and research. The thesis uses the intelligent agent-based simulation method to analyze the emergence process of fashion. Two models have been established in the paper to determine whether the public can accept a certain fashion threshold. A model based on public access to all the information, the other based on individuals can only access the neighboring information.