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未来,随着非常规天然气的快速发展,天然气有望成长为全球第一大能源。根据2011年埃克森美孚发布的《2030年能源展望报告》,预计到2030年天然气在世界一次能源结构中所占比例将从当前的23.8%提高到28%,超过石油成为世界第一大能源。因此,页岩气革命将有望改变国际能源格局,重塑世界工业版图,并改变国际地缘政治关系。一、短期:页岩气产量快速增长改变全球天然气贸易格局,天然气价格持续低位将抑制大宗商品价格上涨以页岩气为首的非常规天然气
In the future, with the rapid development of unconventional natural gas, natural gas is expected to grow into the largest energy source in the world. According to the 2030 Energy Outlook Report released by ExxonMobil in 2011, the share of natural gas in the world primary energy structure is expected to increase from 23.8% to 28% by 2030, surpassing that of oil as the world’s largest energy source . Therefore, the shale gas revolution will hopefully change the international energy pattern, reshape the industrial map of the world and change the international geopolitical relations. First, the short-term: rapid growth of shale gas production Changes in the global pattern of natural gas trade, natural gas prices will continue to suppress the low commodity prices rose Shale gas-led unconventional natural gas