2001年,章家敦曾著《中国即将崩溃》(英文版)一书,海外流传颇广。纵观中外历史,除非有外患或严重的内斗,粮食匮乏、资源耗竭及基础设施建设的朽坏等,往往成为国家衰亡的重要原因。张镜湖教授著文就中国大陆的农、渔、牧,能源,水资源及道路交通、航运与港口基础设施建设等方面作了扼要分析,现将其刊出,供读者判断。 In 2001, Zhang Jia-tung had a book called “The Coming of China” (in English), which is widely circulated overseas. Looking at the history of both China and foreign countries, unless there is a plague or a serious infighting, lack of food, depletion of resources and deterioration of infrastructure construction, etc., they often become an important cause of the decline of the country. Professor Zhang Jinghu made a brief analysis on the agricultural, fishing, animal husbandry, energy, water resources and road traffic, shipping and port infrastructure construction in mainland China. Now it is published for reader’s judgment.