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目的预测贵州省伤寒、副伤寒发病趋势,为进一步制定伤寒、副伤寒防控策略和措施提供依据。方法根据贵州省2004-2012年的伤寒、副伤寒发病率数据,用Excel软件建立数据库进行趋势回归模型的选择,然后利用合适的模型对该数据进行拟合,并预测2013、2014年伤寒、副伤寒发病率,分析其变化趋势。结果建立的贵州省2004-2012年伤寒、副伤寒发病率预测模型为二次多项式趋势回归模型,即y=0.3 821x2-5.8 632x+24.785,决定系数R2=0.9 909,模型拟合效果较好。2013年和2014年预测发病率分别为4.36/10万、6.52/10万。结论贵州省伤寒、副伤寒发病率近年来呈逐年下降趋势,2013年和2014年预测发病率有所升高,需采取综合防治措施。
Objective To predict the incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in Guizhou Province and provide evidence for further prevention and control measures of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever. Methods According to the data of incidence of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in Guizhou province from 2004 to 2012, the database was set up by Excel software to select the trend regression model. Then, the data were fitted by suitable models and the data of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in 2013 and 2014 Typhoid fever incidence, analysis of its changing trend. Results The prediction model of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in Guizhou Province from 2004 to 2012 was quadratic polynomial trend regression model, that is, y = 0.3 821x2-5.8 632x + 24.785, and the coefficient of determination was R2 = 0.9909. The model fitting effect was good. The projected incidence rates in 2013 and 2014 were 4.36 / 100,000 and 6.52 / 100,000 respectively. Conclusion The morbidity of typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever in Guizhou Province has been declining year by year in recent years. The predicted incidence rates in 2013 and 2014 have risen, and comprehensive prevention and treatment measures should be taken.