Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty:Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics

来源 :Chinese Journal of Aeronautics | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:jackzhao1
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In this paper,a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty.Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed,i.e.,evidencetheory-based reliability metrics,interval-analysis-based reliability metrics,fuzzy-interval-analysisbased reliability metrics,possibility-theory-based reliability metrics(posbist reliability) and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics(belief reliability).It is pointed out that a qualified reliability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to(1) compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty,and(2) satisfy the duality axiom,otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications.The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties,and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics. In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, ie, evidencetheory-based reliability metrics , interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis based reliability metrics, probability-based-based reliability metrics (posbist reliability) and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs (1) compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and (2) satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. the five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.
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