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前景理论是不确定决策领域的基础理论,而均值前景(mean prospect)模型下的前景理论可以解释报童决策偏差现象.为此,通过改进均值前景模型,构建不同产品下决策者参考点的计算方法,提出了基于前景理论的库存决策模型,并从理论上证明了前景理论与报童决策偏差之间的关系.仿真结果显示,不同产品中决策者的心理参考点、感知损失/获益区间存在显著差异,部分产品中前景理论能够有效解释决策者的实际订购行为,该结论与己有的研究成果一致.
The foreground theory is the basic theory in the field of uncertainty decision making, while the foreground theory under the mean prospect model can explain the decision-making bias of the newsboy.Thus, by improving the mean foreground model, the calculation method of reference points for decision makers under different products , A stock decision model based on the foreground theory is put forward and the relationship between the foreground theory and the newsboy decision bias is proved theoretically.The simulation results show that there are significant differences in the psychological reference points and perceived loss / benefit intervals among decision makers in different products Difference, some products in the foreground theory can effectively explain the actual ordering behavior of decision-makers, the conclusion is consistent with the existing research results.