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利用2001年到2010年的月度数据,运用基于VEC模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解,分析宏观经济因素对中国寿险需求的影响机理和时序维度上的动态特征表明:国内生产总值冲击会给寿险保费收入带来正向影响,这一冲击具有显著的促进作用和较长的持续效应;通货膨胀率对寿险保费收入具有较小的负向影响;利率和股市波动长期来看对寿险保费收入也有正向影响。方差分解结果表明,国内生产总值的冲击对寿险保费收入影响最大,其余依次为利率、通货膨胀率和上证综合指数。
Using monthly data from 2001 to 2010, the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on VEC model are used to analyze the impact mechanism of macroeconomic factors on life insurance demand in China and the dynamic characteristics in time dimension. The impact of GDP on life insurance Premium income has a positive impact, the impact has a significant role in promoting and long-lasting effect; inflation rate on life insurance premium income has a smaller negative impact; interest rates and stock market volatility in the long run, life insurance premium income also Positive impact. Variance decomposition results show that the impact of GDP on life insurance premium income most affected, followed by interest rates, inflation and the Shanghai Composite Index.