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就实质而言,国内群体性事件只是社会利益群体的博弈。当前我国群体性事件绝大多数并不以反社会为目的,在政治上不具反动性。就实质而言,群体性事件大部分都只是一种利益诉求的社会表达。因此,尽管我国区域性群体性事件时有发生,但社会大局依然稳定。未来15至25年,中国社会将有可能进入区域性群体性事件多发期,其在动员方式、矛盾冲突、参与主体等方面表现出新的特点,蕴含较大的社会风险。但由于认识误区,基层政府在处置群体性事件中存在的“维稳异化”“运动式治理”“选择性治理”等问题有可能会增大群体性事件治理的风险,须引起决策层的高度重视。
In essence, domestic mass incidents are only the game of social interest groups. At present, the overwhelming majority of mass incidents in our country are not aimed at antisocial activities and are not politically motivated. In essence, most of the mass incidents are merely social expressions of interest demands. Therefore, despite the occurrence of regional mass incidents in our country, the general social situation remains stable. In the next 15 to 25 years, it is probable that Chinese society will enter the multiple periods of regional mass incidents, showing new characteristics in terms of mobilization methods, conflicts and conflicts, and the main actors involved. This will include greater social risks. However, due to misunderstanding, the problems of grassroot government in the handling of mass incidents may increase the risk of mass incidents management, such as “stabilization of control”, “sports governance” and “selective governance.” Aroused the attention of decision-makers.