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基于多年的调查资料，利用全过程流行速率模拟叶枯性病害流行动态，同时筛选出四个主效因子，并用四个主效因子进行几种预测方法的比较，结果是以回归预测准确率最高并建立了蜡熟期病指的回归预测式：Ｙ＝－２３．８６０２＋１１．０３４６ｘ１＋０．６１７５ｘ２－６．３７８６ｘ３－０．１２６３ｘ４
Based on the data collected over many years, the epidemic dynamics of leaf blight disease were simulated using the whole process of epidemic rate. Four main effect factors were also screened and compared with the four main effect factors. The result was that the regression prediction accuracy was the highest And established the regression equation of disease index of ripening stage: Y = -23.8602 + 11.0346x1 + 0.6175x2-6.3786x3-0.1263x4