基于运动波方程差分解的数值扩散在一定条件下可以模拟扩散波物理扩散的新途径 ,对马斯京根 康吉洪水演算方法和具有预见期的洪水演算方法进行了分析 ,给出了方法的稳定性条件 .对两条天然河道的应用表明 ,洪峰流量、峰现时间和过程线等的预报精度均达到了《水文情报预报规范》的要求 . Numerical Diffusion Based on Moving Wave Equations Difference Solution Under certain conditions, a new way to simulate diffusion of physical waves can be simulated. The calculation method of Muskingum flood and flood forecasting method are analyzed. The stability of the method is also given The application of the two natural rivers shows that the forecast accuracy of peak flow, peak time and process line all meet the requirements of “Hydrological Forecasting”.