本文试图为中美贸易协商提供一个理论框架,并从更一般化的意义上对削减关税之谜(tariff reduction paradox)给出了一个新的理论解释:从一个高关税的初始环境出发,在一定条件下政府之间会相互协商以降低关税,但不会完全取消关税。这是由于在某些情况下,关税可以减少多重瓦尔拉斯均衡带来的不确定性。进一步而言,通过外商直接投资发生的“禀赋互换(endowment swaps)”可成为优于关税和贸易管制的一种替代选择。 This article attempts to provide a theoretical framework for Sino-US trade negotiations and gives a new theoretical explanation for the tariff reduction paradox in a more general sense: starting from the initial environment of high tariffs, Under the conditions, the government will negotiate with each other to reduce tariffs, but will not completely abolish the tariffs. This is because in some cases tariffs can reduce the uncertainty associated with multiple Walrasian equilibria. Further, “endowment swaps”, which take place through foreign direct investment, can be an alternative to tariffs and trade controls.