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建立全国性碳排放交易机制之前,需要设计合理的碳排放交易机制,尤其是初始碳配额分配。采用基于多Agent方法,结合目前使用广泛的统一定价拍卖方式研究初始配额分配中不同的拍卖比例对电力价格、碳价格、碳排放量和发电能源结构的影响。本文还进一步对统一定价拍卖方法和免费分配方法进行了对比。模拟仿真结果表明:随着拍卖比例的增加,电价小幅上涨。同时高比例的拍卖将导致碳价降低、碳排放减少。在发电电源结构中,清洁能源方面将获得快速发展。而且,拍卖方法比免费分配方法在减排方面更加激进,随着拍卖比例提高,拍卖方法对电力行业的影响更加明显。基于以上结果,本文对碳排放交易市场中的拍卖比例提出政策建议。
Before establishing a nationwide carbon trading mechanism, it is necessary to design a reasonable carbon trading mechanism, especially for the allocation of initial carbon credits. Based on the multi-agent method, this paper studies the effect of different auction ratios on the price of electricity, carbon price, carbon emissions and energy structure of power generation in the initial quota allocation, combined with the widely used unified pricing auction. This article also further contrasts the uniform pricing auction method and the free distribution method. Simulation results show that: with the increase of the auction ratio, the price of electricity rose slightly. At the same time, a high percentage of auctions will lead to lower carbon prices and lower carbon emissions. In the power generation structure, there will be rapid development of clean energy. Moreover, the auction method is more radical than the free allocation method in terms of emission reduction. As the auction ratio increases, the auction method has a more pronounced impact on the power industry. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on the auction proportion in the carbon emissions trading market.