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兀良哈三卫南迁是明代政治军事事件 ,但由于三卫恰位于农牧过渡带上 ,故兀良哈南迁也常被看作是 15世纪气候变冷的结果。气候变冷引起北方游牧民族南下 ,在相当程度上已经成为研究环境变迁影响人类活动的学者比较通行的看法。本文结合历史文献分析并根据现代气候状况进行推演 ,对兀良哈三卫南迁气候寒冷说提出质疑 ,进一步强调了三卫南迁中军事、政治因素的主导作用 ,从而证明要判断不同时期、不同民族南下的确切原因 ,还需要许多更为深入细致的研究 ,要考虑到当时具体的政治、军事形势 ,而不宜简单地将其视为仅仅是气候变冷的结果。
Wu Liang Ha Sanwei southward migration is a political and military incident of the Ming Dynasty, but because Sanwei is located in the transitional belt of farming and animal husbandry, so Wu Liang Hanan move is often seen as a result of the 15th century climate change. Climate change has caused the northern nomads to go south and to a considerable extent has become the more common view of scholars who study the impact of environmental change on human activities. Based on the analysis of historical documents and deduction based on the current climate conditions, this article raises questions about the cold climate of the south of Wu-ha-ha-San-Wei relocation, further emphasizes the leading role of the military and political factors in the migration of Sanwei to South, The exact reasons for the different ethnic groups to go south will require many more detailed studies, taking into account the specific political and military situation prevailing at that time and should not simply be regarded as the result of a mere climate change.