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过度自信与后悔厌恶是投资者普遍存在的两种心理偏差。通过过度自信与后悔厌恶对证券市场收益率分布的影响的定性分析可知:这两种心理偏差会造成证券市场收益率分布左偏,而且与正态分布相比较存在尖峰厚尾现象;特别是随着时间单位的增大,收益率分布的尖峰厚尾呈递减的趋势。利用深圳成分指数和上海综合指数进行的实证研究发现,中国股票市场的收益率分布存在上述现象。
Overconfidence and regret aversion are two psychological deviations common to investors. Through the qualitative analysis of the influence of overconfidence and regret aversion on the distribution of returns in the securities market, we can see that these two kinds of psychological deviations will cause the stock market to have a left-handed rate of return distribution with spikes and thick tails compared with the normal distributions; especially with With the increase of time units, the peak and tail of the distribution of returns rate showed a decreasing trend. Empirical studies using the Shenzhen Component Index and the Shanghai Composite Index find that the above phenomenon exists in the distribution of returns in China’s stock market.