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本文通过大量实际资料分析认为,现代全球变暖与海平面上升,源于200多年前小冰期冷峰出现后的气候返暖、海平面回升过程演变的结果。近30年的世界海平面上升的速率,有着上世纪80、90年代和本世纪前10年世界平均气温每10年以0.2F°(0.11 °C)为梯度的连续抬升为背景。在此以CO2含量为气候指标,划分出了公元200年以来的八个暖段(暖期)。若按冷暖极值距200年或250年计算,则由目前正在发展的暖期,将在公元2050年或2100年前后结束,而后开始降温。作者依据最近30年同一时段国内外验潮资料计算获得的绝对海平面升降速率为﹢1.52 ± 0.27mm/a 及相对海平面升降速率为+1.39 ± 0.26 mm/a。按照2010年坎昆气候大会决议要求,在对前人有关研究成果进行考量时,对将来的2050和2100年世界海平面预测及我国地面沉降较明显的沿海城市如天津、上海、厦门、海口等相对海平面升降值,进行了测算与评估。
Based on a large amount of actual data, this paper argues that modern global warming and sea level rise originate from the evolution of climate warming and sea level recovery after the onset of the cold peak in the Little Ice Age more than 200 years ago. The rate of sea level rise in the last 30 years has been continuously rising with a gradient of 0.2F ° (0.11 ° C) every 10 years in the world during the 1980s and 1990s and the first 10 years of this century. Based on the CO2 content as the climatic index, eight warm periods (warm period) since 200 AD were divided. If the heating and cooling extremes are 200 or 250 years old, the warm period now under development will end around 2050 or 2100 and then cool down. The authors calculated the absolute sea-level rise and fall rates of +1.52 ± 0.27 mm / a and the relative sea level rise and fall rates of +1.39 ± 0.26 mm / a based on the tide data at home and abroad during the last 30 years. According to the resolution of Cancun Climate Conference 2010, when considering the research results of predecessors, the future forecast of world sea level in 2050 and 2100 and the coastal cities such as Tianjin, Shanghai, Xiamen, Haikou and so on with obvious land subsidence in China The relative sea level rise and fall values were measured and evaluated.