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本文首先在已有的“多边阻力”概念基础上,尝试将第三方效应引入重力方程,用以反映区域间贸易的相互影响,得到与万有引力公式相一致的贸易多边重力方程,而传统双边重力方程只是它的一个特例。然后,通过泰勒线性展开技术,将多边重力方程转化为易于估计的空间相关模型。最后,借助跨国贸易数据进行了大量经验检验。结果发现,第三方效应是贸易重力方程中的普遍现象,忽略它将导致其他参数估计和相应的政策建议不可靠;同时,第三方效应的存在还有助于解释全球贸易不断增长这一典型事实。
Based on the existing concept of “multilateral resistance”, this paper tries to introduce the third-party effect into the gravity equation to reflect the inter-regional trade interaction and obtain the multilateral trade equation of gravity which is consistent with the universal gravitation formula. The traditional bilateral The gravity equation is just a special case of it. Then, using the Taylor linear expansion technique, the multilateral gravity equation is transformed into an easily estimateable spatial correlation model. Finally, a large number of empirical tests have been conducted with the aid of cross-border trade data. The result shows that the third-party effect is a common phenomenon in trade gravity equation. Ignoring it will lead to other parameters estimation and corresponding policy recommendations unreliable. At the same time, the existence of third-party effects will help to explain the typical fact that global trade is growing .