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该文针对中国煤间接液化技术经济评价中的市场不确定性,建立煤间接液化技术经济分析模型,分析煤间接液化产品成本的主要组成及影响因素,同时引入表征不确定市场的若干变量,并通过Monte Carlo模拟的方法量化考察市场不确定条件下煤间接液化技术的经济性以及各风险因素对生产成本的影响。结果显示:当前不确定的煤炭市场条件下,仅当国际油价处于近100美元/桶的高位时,中国煤间接液化才具有低风险的经济可行性;同时煤价变化与煤间接液化装置运行程度对其成本有较大影响。
This article aims at the market uncertainty in the economic evaluation of indirect coal liquefaction technology in China, establishes the economic analysis model of indirect coal liquefaction technology, analyzes the main components and influencing factors of coal indirect liquefaction product cost, and introduces some variables to characterize the uncertain market Through Monte Carlo simulation method to quantify the uncertainty of the market under the conditions of coal indirect liquefaction technology and the various risk factors on the impact of production costs. The results show that under the current uncertain coal market conditions, indirect coal liquefaction in China only has a low-risk economic feasibility when the international oil price is at a high level of nearly 100 US dollars / barrel. At the same time, coal price changes and the coal indirect liquefaction plant operation degree Have a greater impact on its cost.