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目的利用遥感、地理信息系统和空间统计学方法,分析广州市登革热疫情与空间地理环境之间的关系。方法利用遥感和地理信息系统技术用于多源地理空间环境数据的获取,Spearman法和多重回归法分析登革热疫情与地理环境因子之间的关系。结果登革热疫情与土地利用类型、水体指数、地表温度、人口和国内生产总值间呈高度显著正相关,其中与夜晚地表温度和人口的相关系数分别为0.699和0.705。建立了登革热疫情与人口、夜间地表温度、土地利用类型之间的多重线性回归方程,R2=0.278,整体F检验P=0.001,回归方程具有统计学意义,其中人口对登革热疫情贡献最大。结论登革热疫情与人口、经济等社会环境和温度、土地利用类型等自然环境密切相关,在今后的登革热防控中,应重点关注地理空间环境中人口密度和地表温度对疫情的影响。
Objective To analyze the relationship between the epidemic situation of dengue and the spatial and geographical environment in Guangzhou using remote sensing, geographic information system and spatial statistics. Methods The remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques were used to obtain the data of multi-source geospatial environment. Spearman’s method and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze the relationship between dengue fever and geographical environment factors. Results There was a highly significant positive correlation between the incidence of dengue fever and the types of land use, water body index, surface temperature, population and GDP, with correlation coefficients of night surface temperature and population of 0.699 and 0.705 respectively. The multiple linear regression equation between dengue fever epidemic and population, nighttime surface temperature and land use type was established. R2 = 0.278, the overall F test was P = 0.001, the regression equation was statistically significant, of which the population contributed the most to the dengue fever epidemic. Conclusion The dengue fever epidemic is closely related to the natural environment such as population, economy and social environment and temperature and land use types. In the future prevention and control of dengue fever, we should pay close attention to the impact of population density and surface temperature on epidemic situation in geospatial environment.