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文章基于商品生存时间视角,利用HS6分位商品贸易数据和K-M生存分析法从微观动态角度揭示了中国与“丝路”沿线国家出口贸易增长趋势、特征及其影响因素。结果表明:商品生存时间短、持续出口商品过于单一是中国对“丝路”沿线国家贸易的主要特征;进一步划分7个区域的研究发现,东盟商品生存时间最长,其他区域生存时间相对较短且生存率较低;从影响因素来看,国家特征变量中反映“丝路”特征的经济自由度、每百人上网人数等变量对不同区域商品生存时间影响显著。因此,为促进出口贸易持续、平稳的增长,政府或企业应针对不同区域影响因素的差异性采取不同的措施,有针对性地进行商品出口,同时利用东盟自贸区成功的经验提高出口商品生存时间。
Based on the commodity life time perspective, this article uses HS6 quantile commodity trade data and K-M survival analysis method to reveal the growth trend, characteristics and influential factors of export trade between China and countries along the Silk Road from the micro-dynamic perspective. The results show that: short product survival time and over-continuous export goods are the main characteristics of China’s trade with other countries along the Silk Road; further study of seven regions shows that the ASEAN commodity has the longest survival time and the other regions have relatively longer survival time Shorter and lower survival rate. From the perspective of influencing factors, the variables of economic freedom reflecting the “Silk Road” characteristics in the national characteristic variables and the number of people on the Internet per 100 inhabitants have a significant impact on the survival time of commodities in different regions. Therefore, in order to promote the sustained and steady growth of export trade, the government or enterprises should take different measures according to the differences of influencing factors in different regions and export goods in a targeted manner. At the same time, they should make good use of the successful experience of ASEAN Free Trade Area to improve the survival of export commodities. time.