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1998年已近尾声,1999年我国经济增长的态势已经引起社会各方面的密切关注,随着1999年的临近,政府经济部门,经济研究机构陆续发表了明年经济发展形势分析与预测报告。国家信息中心对来自政府经济部门、研究院所和高等学校的46名经济专家进行的问卷调查结果已于近期公之与众。我们把这些分析与预测报告内容归纳为以下三个基本方面: 一、1999年我国经济运行的宏现环境。多数预测意见认为,1999年经济运行环境大体与1998年相同,既有有利因素,也有不利因素; 二、1999年我国经济发展的可能格局与经济增长预测。当前我国经济发展面临高速增长后的一个中期调整过程,权威预测机构建议,在这一调整期经济增长7-8％; 三、实现经济健康、持续发展的政策建议。扩大内需,继续实行积极的财政和货币政策,促进经济健康增长是1999年宏观经济政策的主要导向。
With the end of 1998, the situation of economic growth in our country has drawn close attention from all sectors of society in 1999. With the approaching of 1999, the economic departments and economic research institutions of the government have successively released the analysis and forecast report on the economic development next year. The results of the questionnaire survey conducted by the National Information Center on 46 economic experts from the government departments, research institutes and colleges and universities have been publicly announced in the near future. We summarize the contents of these analyzes and forecasts as the following three basic aspects: 1. The macro environment in which China’s economy operates in 1999. Most of the forecast opinions hold that the economic operation environment in 1999 is basically the same as in 1998 with both favorable and unfavorable factors. Second, the possible pattern of economic development in China in 1999 and the forecast of economic growth. At present, China’s economic development is facing a medium-term adjustment process after its rapid growth. Its authority predicts that the institutions will provide an economic growth of 7-8% during this adjustment period. Third, policy proposals should be made to achieve sound and sustainable economic growth. Expanding domestic demand, continuing to implement proactive fiscal and monetary policies and promoting healthy economic growth are the main orientations of macroeconomic policies in 1999.