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基于2000年1月至2016年5月国内外原油价格数据,运用非线性平滑转换回归(STR)模型实证研究国际油价对国内油价冲击的非线性特征。结论表明:国际油价对国内油价的冲击因国际油价增长率的差异而显著不同,二者的关系呈现分段特征,并在线性与非线性关系间转换;国内原油价格对国际原油价格变化的调整较快;国际油价冲击是国内油价波动的关键诱因,国内原油价格具有一定的惯性,由于政策调控的及时性,有效缓和了国内原油价格的上涨趋势。因此,政策制定者应关注国际原油价格对国内原油价格冲击效应的门槛值,把握主动权;国内原油价格水平与国际原油价格水平已实现充分接轨,当前石油定价机制调整的方向是使油价充分反映国内石油市场的供需变化;应尽快理顺我国原油价格与成品油价格的关系。
Based on the data of domestic and international crude oil prices from January 2000 to May 2016, the non-linear characteristics of the impact of international oil prices on domestic oil prices are empirically studied using the nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) model. The conclusion shows that the impact of international oil prices on domestic oil prices is significantly different due to the difference in growth rates of international oil prices. The relationship between the two shows a fragmented characteristic and changes between linear and non-linear relations. The adjustment of domestic crude oil prices to the changes of international crude oil prices Faster; the impact of international oil price is the key incentive for domestic oil price fluctuations. The domestic crude oil price has a certain inertia. Due to the timeliness of policy control, the upward trend of domestic crude oil prices has been effectively alleviated. Therefore, policymakers should pay close attention to the threshold of the impact of international crude oil prices on domestic crude oil prices, and take the initiative. The domestic crude oil price level has been fully integrated with the international crude oil price level. The current direction of oil pricing mechanism adjustment is to fully reflect the oil price Changes in the supply and demand of the domestic oil market; straighten out the relationship between China’s crude oil prices and refined oil prices as soon as possible.