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在国际经济学理论的基础上 ,本文利用 1 90 5～ 1 93 6年的宏观经济数据 ,分析论证了近代中国的银价、汇率和进出口之间的数量关系。数量分析结果表明 :近代中国的国币汇率是由世界市场的银价决定的 ,汇率对近代中国的进出口也是有影响的 ,数量分析的结果说明 ,近代中国的进出口不只是受汇率一个变量的影响 ,近代中国和世界的GDP、进出口价格指数与汇率同时影响进出口。本文认为 ,经济史家应在统计分析的基础上做出有关的结论 ,而不应该用简单的举例法来随意点评经济运行中客观存在的统计规律。
Based on the theory of international economics, this paper uses the macroeconomic data from 1990 to 1996 and analyzes the quantitative relationship between silver price, exchange rate and import and export in modern China. The quantitative analysis shows that the exchange rate of China’s currency in modern China is determined by the silver price in the world market, and the exchange rate also has an impact on the import and export of modern China. The quantitative analysis shows that the import and export of China in modern China are not limited to a single variable The impact of the recent China and the world GDP, import and export price indices and exchange rates affect both import and export. This paper argues that economic historians should make relevant conclusions on the basis of statistical analysis, and should not simply comment on objective statistical laws existing in economic operation by simple examples.