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很多国家和地区正在对电力工业进行放松管制和市场化改革,这将给电力系统的投资决策带来更多不确定性因素。传统的投资方案评估大多采用净现值(NPV)法,难以计及项目的管理灵活性;实物期权方法(ROA)较好地解决了这一问题,并已开始应用于研究电力投资决策方面的问题。首先简要介绍了实物期权的一些概念,然后对现有的实物期权定价的几种主要方法进行了总结,最后对ROA在电力系统中应用的研究现状做了简要综述,指出几个有待进一步研究的问题。
Many countries and regions are deregulating and marketizing the power industry, which will bring more uncertainty to the power system’s investment decisions. The traditional NPV method is mostly used to evaluate the investment project, which makes it difficult to account for the management flexibility of the project. The Real Option Method (ROA) solves this problem well and has been applied to the research of power investment decision-making problem. First of all, some concepts of real options are introduced briefly. Then, several existing methods of pricing real options are summarized. Finally, the current status of the research on the application of ROA in power system is briefly reviewed. Some issues to be further studied problem.