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建立由数据库、模型库及图形显示系统组成的二化螟种群时间动态预测模拟系统，此系统可进行全省区域内二化螟种群时间动态的模拟测报绘图和种群时间动态影响因子分析。系统模型的有效性检验和灵敏度分析表明，预测的各地一代发生期比较接近田间实际发生期，计算绘出的全省各地发育进度和发生代次能反映出各地理区域的基本发生趋势。地理海拔、早稻收割、耕作制度等都将影响种群的时间动态。
The dynamic simulation system of rice stem borer was established based on database, model base and graphic display system. The system can simulate and plot the time-varying dynamics of rice stem borer (Chilo suppressalis: Walker) in the whole province and analyze the dynamic influence factors. The validity test and sensitivity analysis of the system model show that the forecast generation period of each generation is relatively close to the actual occurrence period of the field, and the calculated development progress and occurrence generation throughout the province can reflect the basic trend of each geographical area. Geographic elevation, early rice harvesting, tillage systems and so on will affect the population dynamics of time.