本文利用疾病的长期趋势、周期趋势、季节趋势和即时趋势为预测因子,对具有单峰型季节特征的疾病进行了定性、定量、定时、定向的回归分析预测。1983～1988年,台州地区各县(市)流脑、麻疹、乙脑、疟疾的预测结果和实际发病率相比,平均拟合率 This article makes use of the long-term trend, periodic trend, seasonal trend and real-time trend of disease as predictors, and carries out qualitative, quantitative, timing, and orientation regression analysis and prediction of diseases with single-peak seasonal characteristics. From 1983 to 1988, the forecasted results of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis, measles, Japanese encephalitis, and malaria in counties (cities) in Taizhou area were compared with the actual incidence rate, and the average fitting rate was