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全球经济有望继续保持增长态势,国际贸易小幅增长,拉动全球集装箱运量平稳增长。超大型新船运力继续增长,拆解运力存量明显减少,闲置运力规模逐步上升。8000TEU以上船型主要投放至东西向主干航线,东西向主干航线运力过剩难以缓解。主干航线年运价平均值持续低位震荡。中远期看空,价格震荡下行。令人期待的是“一带一路”政策带动集装箱贸易。传统主干航线与新兴航线市场将此消彼长。提供三大锦囊:1.审时度势,降低成本:紧随贸易趋势,紧盯运力投放。2.随行就市,控制成本:对外签订指数挂钩协议,对内严控经营成本。3.善用工具,锁定成本:利用远期订舱与远期衍生品
The global economy is expected to maintain its growth momentum with a slight increase in international trade, driving the steady growth of global container traffic. The capacity of super-large new vessels continued to grow, the stock of dismantling capacity was significantly reduced, and the scale of idle capacity gradually increased. 8000TEU ship type is mainly put on the east-west trunk route, east-west trunk route overcapacity is difficult to ease. The average annual freight rate of main routes continued low volatility. Long-term bearish, the price shock down. What is expected is that the “Belt and Road” policy will drive container trade. The traditional trunk routes and emerging routes market will shift. Provide three tips: 1. Temporary situation, reduce costs: follow trade trends, focus on capacity delivery. 2. Accompany the market, control costs: the external signed an index linked agreement, the internal strict control of operating costs. 3. Good use of tools to lock costs: the use of long-term booking and forward derivatives