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自2009年至今,创业板市场运行已有6年的时间。上市公司数量急剧增加,财务指标初具规模。但随着创业板市场的不断发展壮大,也出现了不少亟待解决的问题。创业板上市公司板高成长的光环渐渐褪去,财报业绩频频变脸,创业板的健康发展和投资者的权益也因此遭受威胁。因此,需建立一个行之有效的创业板上市公司财务危机预警模型非常重要。本文以创业板上市公司为研究对象,运用动态的C ox比例风险模型,建立了创业板上市公司的财务危机预警模型。并对模型精确度进行检验,模型的预测精度超过90%,模型取得了预期的效果。最后,分析该模型的优点并指出其局限性。
Since 2009, the GEM market has been running for 6 years. The number of listed companies increased dramatically, with financial indicators taking shape. However, as the GEM continues to grow and develop, many problems have yet to be solved. Growth board GEM GEM halo gradually faded earnings performance frequently face up, the healthy development of GEM and the interests of investors are therefore under threat. Therefore, it is very important to set up an effective early warning model of financial crisis for GEM listed companies. In this paper, GEM-listed companies as the research object, the use of dynamic Cox proportional hazards model, the GEM listed company’s financial crisis early warning model was established. The accuracy of the model is tested, and the prediction accuracy of the model is more than 90%. The model has achieved the expected results. Finally, the advantages of the model are analyzed and its limitations are pointed out.