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从2012年开始中国就进入了通货收缩时期。目前中国经济仍处于L形的垂直部分,尚未到达水平部分,经济还会持续下行。2016年房地产投资下滑可能触发一场危机,中国应该采取扩张性财政政策,再一次通过基础设施投资方式拉动经济增长,但基础设施投资应该通过发行国债融资。人民币不存在持续贬值基础,但这并不意味着人民币在近期内不会贬值。汇率维稳的代价是外汇储备急剧下降,中国当前应选择保住外汇储备而不是汇率。
Since 2012, China has entered a deflationary period. At present, China’s economy is still in the vertical part of the L shape, yet it has not reached the horizontal part, and the economy will continue its downward trend. The downturn in real estate investment in 2016 could trigger a crisis. China should adopt an expansionary fiscal policy and once again stimulate economic growth through infrastructure investment. However, infrastructure investment should be financed through the issuance of treasury bonds. There is no basis for continuous devaluation of RMB, but this does not mean that RMB will not devalue in the near future. The price of maintaining the stability of the exchange rate is a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves, China should choose to keep the current foreign exchange reserves instead of the exchange rate.