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目的掌握嘉峪关市暗娼人群的基数,为预测艾滋病的流行趋势和制定艾滋病防治决策提供依据。方法运用普查法与乘数法对暗娼人群基数进行估计,并比较分析影响因素。结果普查法估计嘉峪关市暗娼人数为919人,乘数法为1 451人。结论无论普查法还是乘数法,完善的记录资料都是进行基数估计不可或缺的条件。与乘数法比较,普查法原理简单,但也易受外部条件影响,造成估计误差。
Objective To understand the population base of female sex workers in Jiayuguan city and provide the basis for forecasting the HIV / AIDS epidemic trend and formulating AIDS prevention and control decision-making. Methods Census method and multiplier method were used to estimate the number of FSW crowd base and comparative analysis of the influencing factors. Results The census method estimated the number of sex workers in Jiayuguan City to be 919, and the multiplier method was 1 451. Conclusion Both census method and multiplier method, sound records are indispensable for cardinality estimation. Compared with the multiplier method, census method is simple, but also vulnerable to external conditions, resulting in estimation error.