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协调好能源、经济和碳排放三者的关系意义重大。我国经济社会发展与能源环境约束的矛盾日益突出,全面实现可持续发展依旧任重而道远。为此,基于我国1990~2013年的年度时间序列数据,运用计量经济学方法对我国能源消费、经济增长和碳排放的互动关系进行实证分析。首先对数据预处理以消除不平稳性,并进行相关性检验。将处理后所得数据进行稳定性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验。然后利用脉冲响应分析和方差分解测算三者之间的冲击效应和影响程度。研究结果表明,1990~2013年间,能源消费、经济增长和碳排放三者存在长期均衡关系和短期动态调整机制;碳排放对能源消费和经济增长存在单向因果关系,能源消费对经济增长存在单向因果关系;能源消费、经济增长和碳排放短期内受到碳排放的冲击影响较大,三者的主要贡献因子均为碳排放。依据研究结论,提出加大科研投入、优化产业结构、提高能源利用率和强化低碳意识等对策建议。
The relationship between energy, economy and carbon emissions is of great significance. The contradictions between the economic and social development and the energy and environmental restraints in our country have become increasingly prominent. It is still a long way to go to achieve sustainable development in an all-round way. Therefore, based on the annual time series data from 1990 to 2013 in our country, we use the econometrics method to analyze the interactive relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emissions in China. First data preprocessing to eliminate the uneven, and the correlation test. The data will be processed after the stability test, cointegration test and Granger causality test. Then use the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to measure the impact between the three and the degree of impact. The results show that between 1990 and 2013, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emissions and a short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism. There is a one-way causal relationship between carbon emissions and energy consumption and economic growth. To causality; energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emissions in the short term impact of carbon emissions greater impact, the three main contributors are carbon emissions. According to the conclusions of the study, some countermeasures are put forward, such as increasing investment in scientific research, optimizing industrial structure, improving energy efficiency and strengthening low-carbon awareness.