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针对矿山尾矿库危害问题,构建了尾矿库事故隐患关联的复杂网络,给出了尾矿库隐患状态及风险演化的系统动力学模型,并结合矿山尾矿库案例进行了应用分析.结果表明,通过隐患关联的复杂网络法、隐患转移的三态法以及风险演化的系统动力学模型的巧妙结合,能够明确地表征尾矿库事故隐患及风险演化规律,包括隐患作用关系、递演途径、风险程度等.成果应用于临钢980沟尾矿库,仿真结果与980沟尾矿库事故发展规律的实际情况吻合较好,说明所建模型可有效表征尾矿库溃坝事故演化的时空规律和风险程度,预测危险的发生.
Aiming at the hazard of mine tailings reservoir, a complex network of hidden faults associated with tailings reservoir accidents is constructed, and the system dynamic model of the hidden danger state and risk evolution of tailings reservoir is given, and the application analysis is made with the case of tailings mine. It shows that through the ingenious combination of the complex network method of hidden danger, the three-state method of hidden danger transfer and the systematic dynamic model of risk evolution, the hidden dangers and risk evolvement rules of tailings storage can be characterized explicitly, , The degree of risk, etc. The results are applied to the 980-ditch tailings dam in Lingang and the simulation results are in good agreement with the actual situation of the development of the tailings accident in 980-ditch, indicating that the model can effectively characterize the space-time evolution of tailings dam- Regularity and degree of risk predict the occurrence of danger.